Free Guide · 12 Pages
The retirement math nobody explains.
Two forces quietly erode retirement portfolios, and neither shows up in the average return you see reported. This guide explains both, in plain English.
- Why a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to break even
- How the order of your returns decides whether money lasts
- Why the ten years around your retirement date matter most
- What a lower-return plan can do that a higher-return one cannot
The asymmetry of loss
What a portfolio must gain just to return to where it started.
The deeper the drawdown, the wider the gap — and the longer recovery takes. For someone withdrawing income during that recovery, the gap never fully closes.
What’s inside
Five ideas that change how you read your portfolio
Why losses and gains are not symmetrical
A 20% loss needs a 25% gain to break even. A 50% loss needs 100%. The gap widens fast — and it’s why two portfolios with the same average return can end up in very different places.
The withdrawal problem
When you spend from your portfolio, a down year doesn’t just hurt on paper. You sell shares at their lowest price to fund living expenses, and those shares never participate in the recovery.
Why the order of returns decides everything
Two retirees, identical average returns, identical withdrawals. One finishes with over a million dollars. One runs out. The only difference is which years the losses landed in.
The first ten years matter most
Sequence risk concentrates in the decade around your retirement date. What happens in that window shapes the next thirty years more than anything that follows.
What winning by losing less looks like
A lower average return with less volatility can sustain income longer than a higher average return with big swings. The math is counterintuitive until you see it laid out.
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Who this is for
People within ten years of retiring — or already there
If you’re still decades from retirement, time solves most of what this guide covers. If you’re close to drawing income, time stops being a solution and becomes a constraint. That shift is what this guide is about.
Who wrote it
Dustin Tait, fiduciary advisor
Dustin is a fiduciary advisor with Freedom First Retirement Design in North Atlanta, working with pre-retirees and retirees on income planning. As a fiduciary, he is obligated to act in your interest — and this guide is education, not a pitch.
Would a second opinion help?
The guide explains the math. A conversation applies it to your plan.
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